I recently had the pleasure of hosting Jeff Selingo on The Vinedown, and I have to tell you – having him on the show felt like getting a masterclass in higher education's future. Jeff isn't just any expert; he's the former editor of The Chronicle of Higher Education, a bestselling author, and one of the most clear-eyed observers of the college landscape I've ever met.
In other words, Jeff is a legend and I couldn’t wait to talk to him.
We started the discussion with our mutual theory that 2025 will be a year of reckoning. We debated how many colleges might close – Jeff predicts two dozen, while I'm betting on double that number. But what fascinated me most was Jeff's insights into the institutions that are "limping along." These are colleges that might not close tomorrow… but aren't truly investing in student success either.
As Jeff explained, the warning signs are clear: operating at a deficit, making headlines for financial troubles (hello, junk bond ratings), and most importantly, unable to invest properly in faculty, advising, infrastructure, and career services. He used Birmingham Southern as a stark example – a college that was featured in "Colleges That Change Lives" right up until it announced its closure last year.
But here's where Jeff's perspective gets really interesting: between the colleges that will close and those barely hanging on, there's a third category of institutions that could pioneer the future of higher education. These are schools that might actually innovate their way forward by getting specific about what they do best.
What really struck me was Jeff's take on administrative innovation. When we did a thought experiment about where AI would have the biggest impact in higher ed, he shared that in his conversations with university leaders, they overwhelmingly point to administrative functions rather than classrooms. Yet most of our industry conversations about AI focus solely on teaching and learning. Jeff believes we're missing a massive opportunity to reimagine how colleges operate behind the scenes.
This particularly resonated with me as someone who's spent their career thinking about enrollment and student success. We discussed how enrollment management might lead the way in administrative innovation – partly because it's under such intense pressure to deliver results, but also because it's one of the few areas in higher ed with clear ownership and metrics.
The big question is: how do we help colleges move from "cutting to survive" to "focusing to thrive"? Jeff believes the answer lies in creating more flexible systems – ones that break away from the traditional lock-step progression from high school to college to career. This might mean more integrated dual enrollment programs, better partnerships with community colleges, or innovative co-op programs.
For anyone interested in diving deeper into these ideas (and getting a clear-eyed view of which colleges are actually worth considering), I highly recommend pre-ordering Jeff's upcoming book, "Dream School: Finding the College That's Right for You," coming out September 9th, 2025. He's included a carefully curated list of 75 schools that are worth watching – and knowing Jeff, this list will spark some fascinating conversations in our industry.
The higher ed landscape is changing rapidly, but discussions like this one with Jeff remind me that there's room for innovation and hope – as long as we're willing to face reality and make bold changes. And who knows? Maybe by the time his book launches at NACAC 2025, we'll be seeing some of these transformations in action.
To hear even more of Jeff’s wisdom, make sure to listen to our full conversation here:
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